Systems Dynamic Modelling for Sustainability Science and Social Learning in Complex-Social-Ecological Systems

Partnering Institute: Global Change Institute, 老虎机游戏_pt老虎机-平台*官网 of the Witwatersrand

Project lead: Professor Mary Scholes, SARChI Chair

About the project: South Africa faces wicked challenges with complex social and biophysical dimensions. Examples are the struggle for livelihoods in degrading rural landscapes facing sustainability challenges and a youthful population needing development options. Simple, linear science approaches fail to fully address these challenges, and the next  generation of scientists and development specialists need new thinking and planning tools suitable for the conditions of complex social-ecological systems (CSES). This project, led by the SARChI Chair in Systems Analysis located in the Global Change  research Institute (GRI) at Wits, seeks to use transdisciplinary systems analysis and modelling, to develop integrated land restoration monitoring tools, and curricula for teaching post-graduates and managers. The case study context is the Tsitsa Catchment in the Eastern Cape. Through this project, the GRI will strengthen its links with Rhodes and the catchment. The project includes a doctoral study to develop models and tools for the integrated  monitoring of ecological infrastructure, land restoration and livelihood related indicators, using spatial and systems modelling. These tools will through engagement with the Environmental Learning Research Centre at Rhodes be adapted to support social learning processes among rural residents, land restoration managers and scientists. They will also form part of a suite of materials to guide the development of new modules for university teaching at Wits and Rhodes. The project will therefore contribute to all three aims of the CoP: Practice (guiding and evaluating  restoration and livelihoods development in the Tsitsa); Policy (monitoringand adaptive management tools for national restoration agencies); and Science (new cases, methods and courses). The GRI is well positioned through its international and national partners to participate in the  integration of place-based SDGs, and their monitoring, and to greater understanding of complex systems.

There is a critical need for a new mind-set that integrates the ongoing development of human societies and the maintenance of the Earth system in a resilient and accommodating state (Steffen et al., 2015). A systemic approach is needed to deal with integrated high risk concerns  such as land use change, climate change, loss of biosphere integrity and biogeochemical cycles. Broad coalitions of multi-actors and organisations are needed to bring about the systemic changes needed for just transitions. For this we require better tools for systems analysis. Attaining the SDGs requires better ‘science’, but this is in itself inadequate. Increasingly the need for understanding how the various knowledge(s) that informs science are created, is also critical. This requires shifting from a ‘deficit knowledge’ approach to one that embraces co-exploration and co-design and implementation of science WITH society. Using systems dynamics modelling and the above context, we propose the following research contribution to the CoP focusing on a study by PhD scholar Adela Itzkin (co-supervised by Professor Scholes and Dr Clifford Holmes) to be conducted with multi-actors in the Tsitsa catchment. As outlined in Itzkin’s proposal, the Tsitsa is a tributary of the Mzimvubu, the last large river in South Africa without a dam and is located in the  northern part of the Eastern Cape province. The catchment is part of thepoorest and least developed region in South Africa and is made up of land which formed part of the former Cape Province and the part of the former Transkei (Calmeyer and Muruven 2014). Models of the sediment yield potential indicate that the current sediment load in the river would render the proposed Ntabelanga dam inoperable within about 55 years (le Roux 2018). The high sediment yields are the result of ecological issues (a high relief landscape and highly erodible soils under a high intensity rainfall regime) and social issues (livestock, cropping and a history of forced human settlement on unstable soils). Costly engineering solutions such as sediment traps and erosion control measures are inadequate in addressing the problem. Given that the issues facing the area are both social and ecological, the project proposes a transdisciplinary social-ecological systems solution to the problem and aims “to support sustainable livelihoods for local people through integrated landscape management that strives for resilient socialecological  systems and which fosters equity in access to ecosystem services” (DEA, in Fabricius et al. 2016). Rhodes 老虎机游戏_pt老虎机-平台*官网 takes the lead on the Tsitsa Project and is funded by the DEA. The research approach is through various themed Communities of Practice (COP). In recognising the interconnected challenges of integrating sustainable livelihood strategies with restoration activities, a capacity building team focussing on praxis-oriented systems thinking and modelling was incorporated into the project in 2018 (Clifford-Holmes and Bester 2018). Research Gap: Although this project aims to embody a transdisciplinary complex social-ecological systems (CSES) approach, social and biophysical data is still commonly collected and analysed separately mostly because of the different scales at which the processes take place. The big idea underpinning this project is to develop and run a process to integrate and connect data in the Tsitsa catchment using a combination of systems dynamics and spatial modelling. This work would cut across disciplines and themes and would be closely aligned with the newly formed systems support working group. Proposed Conceptual Framing: A group of social, earth, and life scientists associated with the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Long- Term Ecological Research (LTER) Network have developed a conceptual framework providing guidelines on how to approach what are often studied separately as natural or human systems, as complex socialecological systems/CSES (Redman, Grove and Kuby 2004- see APPENDIX C). This requires using specific activities such as land-use decisions, changes in land cover, production systems and consumption patterns to connect the social and ecological elements of broad CSESs framework’s three components. Information on external biophysical, political, and economic conditions; and social and ecological patterns and processes that drive the system are needed, as well as insights into feedbacks and interactions resulting from the operation of the patterns and processes (Redman et al. 2004). This project will contribute to research  ethodologies that are being developed by the SARChI Chair in Systems Analysis. South Africa requires more capacity for systems analysis. An integrated research approach using a range of tools including, game theory, think tanks and networks need to be considered that could be case specific but also generic for a wide range of applications, e.g., food security and nutrition, and safety nets for climate extremes, and in the case of this project restoration programmes within wider structural infrastructure projects  (SIPs) such as the design of the Ntabelanga Dam.Our contribution will focus on SDGs 4 and 11, but also 2 and 15 the latter which has resulted in collaborative efforts with the International Institute  for the Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The monitoring of the SDGs in South Africa using the template developed by IIASA will inform the study  design and interpretation of results. Importantly, the study will also feed into curriculum innovation projects of the SARChI Chair in Systems Analysis, focussing on contributing into a new Honours module on Applied Systems analyses which provides an opportunity to generate knowledge across boundaries. This will contribute to much needed  training opportunities in systems dynamics modelling in South Africa, thus enhancing the relevance of knowledge and research capacity in the sustainability sciences and education.

Professor Mary Scholes

Professor Scholes holds a SARChI Chair in Systems Analysis in the Global Change Institute at the 老虎机游戏_pt老虎机-平台*官网 of the Witwatersrand. She will bring systems analysis expertise and methodology development to the CoP. This will contribute to the areas of work in the Tsitsa catchment where a new, more complex methodology for systems analysis is being developed by a PhD scholar of Prof Scholes. This work will also feed into curriculum innovations for teaching systems sciences, which are in high demand in higher education Sustainability Science Programmes, but also amongst practitioners and sustainable development programme managers and inter- and transdisciplinary scientists and practitioners.

Global Change Institute, 老虎机游戏_pt老虎机-平台*官网 of the Witwatersrand 

The Global Change Institute (GCI), 老虎机游戏_pt老虎机-平台*官网 of the Witwatersrand, was established as an enabling research platform of global significance and local impact, fostering informed action for adaptation and innovation in the rapidly changing southern African region. The GCI addresses problems related to global change, climate change and sustainability in a multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary manner. It wants to play a
more prominent role in helping to co-create, understand and inform global change solutions at various levels of decision-making (in business, industry and government – municipal, provincial, national); and to function as an enabling platform utilising research to support progressive change through collaborative efforts with stakeholders.

Last Modified: Fri, 10 Sep 2021 16:37:19 SAST